At the Royal Yacht Club, Bowness, giving a presentation alongside a spokesman from the Bank of England to 60 guests of the Royal Bank of Scotland. The title of my talk was “Tourism, the local perspective, 2010 and beyond”. I followed the ‘Dave’ Cameron style of ‘no tie, no script’, which to my mind is much more friendly than a power-point presentation. My theme was that although the recession may have passed the tourism sector by this year, we may be due for a nasty shock in 2010 if interest rates rise, if the pound recovers, if energy prices rise and if VAT goes up to 20%. I was amused to see on the evening news that Sir Stuart Rose, the Chairman and CEO of Marks and Spencers had been making a speech at the same time, telling the City that we can expect a rise in VAT next year to 20%. Sally “flipped” me and this extract contains the introduction and the conclusion of my talk.